Curse

Valeria · Nov 24, 2007, 01:14 AM // 01:14

It is very likely that SOMETHING almost impossible happens

As for the pets i dont think they did something more complicated than using a random generator.

Reminds me of an FoW run 8 man team and the shards were distributed 5:1:1:0:0:0:0:0 seems unfair but is still just random.

strcpy · Nov 24, 2007, 03:48 AM // 03:48

I made myself Ravioli yesterday, one of the things I like to do is make some "surprise fillings". That is, I make a few of the with fillings contrasting to the "main" ones. Last night I had about 30 or so small ravioli's, 25 of them were a plain venison/onion filling and 5 of them were sausage/bacon. And no, this isn't a parable, when I did this I actually thought of all these "not random" posts we have been getting lately.

I cooked them all in one go in a big pot then transfered them to a bowl, I poured in the cheese bechamel and stirred it up, and finally poured the whole thing onto a plate to eat - I figure that is about as random as one gets and it normally results in never knowing when you are going to get a different bite.

The first five pieces of ravioli I ate were the sausage ones - all of them in one go. Now, obviously that shouldn't have happened (very very small chance there) so I'm betting that reality warped into something that caused my sausage ravioli to be in the exact random places on the plate I chose to stick my fork.

Or, maybe it falls into the "random" category along with you abysmal record of getting multiple fungal wallows.

I've been lucky on my mini-pets, the only one duplicated on close to 15 characters (three on their two year pets,) was a Burning Titan. That shouldn't happen either. I have three made the same day, in fact the three were made within minutes of each other and used as mules (until the increased storage came about). Now, don't get me started on the number of high end items I have found that have *no* modifier (and thus, even in nightfall will not take an inscription) and is, thus, worthless.

Aera Lure · Nov 24, 2007, 04:00 AM // 04:00

Well, you could eat those ravioli and get all five sausage ones in a row, and I really wouldnt be all THAT suprised. What has me suspicious about the mini-pets is that I have gotten multiples of two or more of: trolls, devourers, siege turtles and juggernauts... and that is IT. I have gotten NOTHING else lol, except shockingly, one Djinn. That's more akin to eating the five sausage ones, then eating the five meatball ones, then eating all the rest cheese. Odds on some sort of repitition happening twice in a row are significantly lower, especially given there are other whites I could have gotten. I would understand it a bit more if the spread was a little wider, but its just multiples of two of the first year and two of the second year pets across all of my characters, and then the one Djinn that broke the pattern.

Croco Clouds · Nov 24, 2007, 04:11 AM // 04:11

3 Fungal wallows> 3 whiptails

Crom The Pale · Nov 24, 2007, 04:20 AM // 04:20

Technically there is no such thing as "random" when it comes to computers.

A random number is generated with an algorithm, given the same seed it will generate the same number every time. Most use a clock to generate the random number and some use multiple inputs(day X month X year X time = seed).

Its also possible that the algorithim when given 2 different seeds will generate the same number, its rare in good algorithims but it does happen.

DOCB22 · Nov 24, 2007, 04:36 AM // 04:36

no clue but out of 7 toons 4 got Hydra's

Xue Fang · Nov 24, 2007, 05:05 AM // 05:05

Out of 30 toons I've gotten 6 Bone Dragons, 1 Shiro, 1 Rurik, 4 Gwens, and some random trash.

=)

AlienFromBeyond · Nov 24, 2007, 05:07 AM // 05:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crom The Pale

Technically there is no such thing as "random" when it comes to computers.

A random number is generated with an algorithm, given the same seed it will generate the same number every time. Most use a clock to generate the random number and some use multiple inputs(day X month X year X time = seed).

Its also possible that the algorithim when given 2 different seeds will generate the same number, its rare in good algorithims but it does happen.

Well, you can have truly random numbers if you have a truly random seed.

N E D M · Nov 24, 2007, 05:34 AM // 05:34

Q)How does the so called "random generator" for minipets work?

A)poorly.

snikerz · Nov 24, 2007, 05:59 AM // 05:59

ok heres something for you guys to think about
logged into my other account, grabbed 5 unopened presents and transfered them to my main account.

opened them all rapidly and here are the results:
4 trolls, 2 whiptails

note that i got 4 trolls in a row, then 2 whiptails in a row, ive had similar experiences with other accounts not mine.

its almost like the present you get is determined by the time of the day it is or something.

pumpkin pie · Nov 24, 2007, 07:01 AM // 07:01

glad someone feels my pain, (not that I am happy you got the same problem) my problem is necrid horseman....

sign this idea here! thanks

tmakinen · Nov 24, 2007, 07:18 AM // 07:18

Concerning the Schrodinger's Cat issue, the contents of a birthday present are determined when it's opened (proof: I opened one just before a rollback, then reopened the same present after the rollback, got different pets each time). Contrast this to loot which is determined when the explorable is initiated (but assignment and scaling is still determined at the time of the drop).

Other than that, it's all random and for every player who gets 3 wallows in a row there are 9999 who do not, and thus don't talk about it on these forums

strcpy · Nov 24, 2007, 07:48 AM // 07:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aera Lure

Well, you could eat those ravioli and get all five sausage ones in a row, and I really wouldnt be all THAT suprised.

MUCH rarer to do what I did eating last night than what you describe.

Quote:

What has me suspicious about the mini-pets is that I have gotten multiples of two or more of: trolls, devourers, siege turtles and juggernauts... and that is IT.

Look at the pigeon hole principle and the chances for the whites - that *should* happen fairly often. I'm WAY more surprised by picking the ravioli.

Quote:

I have gotten NOTHING else lol, except shockingly, one Djinn. That's more akin to eating the five sausage ones, then eating the five meatball ones, then eating all the rest cheese.

That would be shocking considering it was a cheese sauce on top of the food

Again the Pigeonhole Principle along with the rarity of non-white drops makes this quite into the realm of "probable". So far my luck in getting only one duplicate across all I've opened is MUCH rarer than what you did (what luck, I get one of everything that is ultra-common and unwanted).

Quote:

Odds on some sort of repitition happening twice in a row are significantly lower, especially given there are other whites I could have gotten.

Nope, past rolls have no effect on new ones. See the "Gambler's Fallacy". Even if you had gotten 15 fungal wallows in a row the chances to get another Fungal Wallow is the same as every other time you opened a present. If you have rolled 15 1's on a six sided die you still have a 1/6 chance of rolling a 1 - you will note that (if, like the die) each outcome has an equal probability - you have the exact same probability of rolling 5 ones as you do rolling a 1,5,3,5,2. Now, the chances of each "grade" dropping in mini-pets isn't the same so it isn't quite that simple, but the idea is still the same.

Quote:

I would understand it a bit more if the spread was a little wider, but its just multiples of two of the first year and two of the second year pets across all of my characters, and then the one Djinn that broke the pattern.

There is no "law of averages" to cause the spread to go a bit wider, only "Law of Big Numbers" and you aren't anywhere near "big numbers". If you opened *all* Fungal Wallows it still very much can fall under "random" (in fact, GW is more than large enough with so few possible outcomes that I would have expected something VERY close to that to have already happened). There have been enough recordings of treasure opening that we know it to be random - the data collected is large enough to somewhat count as "big numbers".

As to the idea proposed (once more) about pseudo-random number generator's (PRNG) in computers, please see my recent post in the "loot scale" thread in the Q&A forum. Essentially while deterministic the output acts in a statistically random fashion - that is you can not tell the difference between it's output and that of something truly random. Therefore it is irrelevant to the sake of getting multiples of the same pet that it is using a PRNG. That is a great example of a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

strcpy · Nov 24, 2007, 07:58 AM // 07:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by tmakinen

Concerning the Schrodinger's Cat issue, the contents of a birthday present are determined when it's opened (proof: I opened one just before a rollback, then reopened the same present after the rollback, got different pets each time). Contrast this to loot which is determined when the explorable is initiated (but assignment and scaling is still determined at the time of the drop).

Yes, but loot *is* still like Schroedinger's Cat - each instance contains all possible loot drops until we observe said instance and at that point loot is determined (assuming they seed at the initiation of the instance and not as you go along).

The only problem I have is that every time I have observed an enemy they seem to die quickly, though I guess when you use a Scythe to observe them then you can't but help but interfere with the state of what you are observing.

Sha Noran · Nov 24, 2007, 03:34 PM // 15:34

Who cares how it determines your present? Everyone wants Bone Dragons and Gwens, but not very many people are going to get them. That's how lotteries work.

It's something that ANet gives you as a complete bonus just for having played the game for a while. It's one of the few things that they did that they didn't have to, and really shouldn't be just another excuse for their fanbase to whine.

Aera Lure · Nov 24, 2007, 03:43 PM // 15:43

^ Wasnt ever a whining topic, to my knowledge. Its simply clear the random generator is not so random, hence the OP's post. Agreed though this topic has been raised a few times before, to no real conclusive or useful end.

fenix · Nov 24, 2007, 03:54 PM // 15:54

It was never meant to be random. Rare minipets aren't meant to appear lots. Crappy ones are. Hence the overabundance of Fungal Wallows.

Crom The Pale · Nov 24, 2007, 04:34 PM // 16:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlienFromBeyond

Well, you can have truly random numbers if you have a truly random seed.

Note that seed is a number, so if you can generate a random seed, you are generating a random number. This is not currently possible.

chowmein69 · Nov 24, 2007, 04:38 PM // 16:38

ive only got 2 of te same minis from a present and they both were trolls and kirins

Solas · Nov 24, 2007, 06:23 PM // 18:23

Go into a cave with trolls, kill 1, chances are you got a raven staff
2nd try: Raven Staff
3rd Try:...Raven staff
... : Another white
... : Purple
... :white
...19th try: golden non-max item

you may get the gold on the 1st try or the 101st try, but golds have better drops then purples and purples have better then whites.

you were jsut unlucky that you got the most common and unwanted mini.
but hey, HoM fills quick with em

my 1 and only pressie was a seige turtle